Since Gallup reported that a high proportion of Hillary Clinton supporters would defect to vote for McCain if she loses — and a not insignificant number of Obama supporters would do likewise if he loses — the pollsters have been trying to dissect their numbers yet further. They show that 39 percent of Clinton supporters who are independent but lean Democratic would cross the line. Conservative Democrats — 38% — are also more likely to defect. The more education the voters have, the more loyal they are to the party. Race and gender are not huge factors.